Thursday, April 18, 2024

Siena College Poll Says DeSantis, Rubio Mostly In The Clear

A press release which popped out this morning seems to do a good deal of damage to the media narratives which say Florida is in play for its gubernatorial and senatorial races this year.

Short version: it isn’t.

Spectrum News / Siena College Florida Poll:
Governor: DeSantis – 49% Crist – 41%
US Senate: Rubio – 48% Demings – 41%
Florida AG: Moody – 41% Ayala – 34%
DeSantis Favorability, 50-43%; Crist Favorability, 34-39%

Voters Say Economy is Most Important Issue in Determining Vote; Threats to Democracy, Immigration & Abortion Next Most Important

Loudonville, NY. Incumbent Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has an 8-point lead, 49-41%, over Democratic challenger Charlie Crist. In the race for the U.S. Senate, Republican Senator Marco Rubio leads Democratic Representative Val Demings by seven points, 48-41%, according to a new Spectrum News/Siena College poll of likely Florida voters completed prior to Hurricane Ian hitting Florida.

DeSantis has a 50-43% favorability rating, while Crist has a negative 34-39% favorability rating, with more than a quarter of voters either not knowing him or having no opinion about him. Rubio has a slightly negative 41-44% favorability rating compared to Demings’ 33-22% favorability rating. The economy is a top issue for 58% of voters as they determine their vote this year, followed by threats to democracy (27%), immigration (23%), abortion (21%), and crime (20%).

“DeSantis, the sitting governor has an 8-point lead over Crist, the former Congressman and Governor. DeSantis has the support of 95% of Republicans and a majority, 52% of independents while Crist is the preference for 90% of Democrats but only 34% of independents,” said Don Levy, Siena College Research Institute’s Director. “Additionally, DeSantis has a solid 50-43% favorability rating, including being viewed favorably by a majority of independents, compared to Crist’s 34-39% favorability rating, with more than a quarter of the electorate not having an opinion about him including 20% of Democrats.

“There is a gender gap. By 24 points men support DeSantis, 57-33% while a plurality of women, 48-42% support Crist,” Levy said. “DeSantis leads Crist in every region of the state except the southeast. Crist has a huge lead among Black voters 74-8%, however, white voters back DeSantis 57-37%.”

“Rubio has the support of 94% of Republicans and leads by 10 points, 45-35% over Demings among independents. Demings has an 89-4% advantage among Democrats,” Levy said. “Men are with Rubio by 26 points, while women support Demings by 10 points. White voters support Rubio by 54-37%, however Black voters back Demings 80-9%. Demings trails in her ‘home’ area of Orlando by 8 points.”

Perhaps the real question is what’s going on with women in Florida? The presence of that massive gender gap seems conspicuous.

I have a theory on this – I’m going to say it’s a reflection of the “shy voter” phenomenon I talked about a few days ago at The Hayride. In that piece, I referenced an appearance Trafalgar Group pollster Robert Cahaly made on Dan Bongino’s Fox News show. Cahaly said pollsters are going to miss on a lot of conservative vote that will be hidden until Election Night because people on the Right simply don’t answer questions from pollsters anymore, and the more aggressively the Biden regime weaponizes law enforcement against people like Donald Trump, the January 6 protesters, Roger Stone and Mark Houck, the more they’re afraid they’ll be put on a list if they express their political views.

And if the “shy voter” phenomenon is a real thing, from a psychographic point of view it would stand to reason that women would be shyer than men. Women tend to be quite a bit more risk-averse than men, and conservative women generally will be married and have families more than men – meaning they’ll feel like they have more to lose if they go on a list.

So some of that gender gap will be Republican women refusing to answer the poll at greater numbers than Democrat women will. And some of it will be Republican women lying to the pollster.

That’s not to deny the gender gap exists. The job the mass media and academia have done in indoctrinating women to a leftist worldview is awfully thorough, and the fact that Florida imposed restrictions on abortion following the Dobbs case at the Supreme Court has surely ginned up more of a pro-abortion vote in that state than otherwise.

But it won’t really help Crist and Demmings much if Siena’s numbers are remotely accurate. Florida is a red state now, and that’s only becoming more pronounced with time.