Saturday, May 18, 2024

2022 Midterms Expectations And Predictions

In less than 24 hours, the American people will be rendering their judgment on the Biden-Harris administration in the 2022 midterm elections. If the polls are to be believed, the American people are set to deliver a repudiation of one-party Democrat control.

Before we go into what I think will happen tomorrow night, let’s look at the expectation game. We should not expect Republicans to win as many seats as have been won in traditional midterm wave elections for the simple reason that Republicans are currently holding a lot of seats in the House of Representatives relatively speaking. Currently, the GOP holds 212 seats and only needs six to win the majority. Expecting a 40+ seat gain is probably not realistic.

What would a bad night for Republicans look like? A bad night for Republicans is ending up with fewer than 225 House seats, failing to take the U.S. Senate, and/or losing governorships.

The good news for Republicans is that I am not expecting them to have a bad night. I expect Republicans have 235-240 seats by the time Banana Republics like California and New York finally stop counting votes. That would be in line with what the party out of power winds up with. I also expect Republicans to win the U.S. Senate with a margin of 52-47-1. Finally, I expect Republicans to keep the same number of governorships they currently have.

U.S. House

The fundamentals are screaming “red wave.” President Joe Biden’s approval rating is historically bad at 42.4%. Americans overwhelmingly believe the country is on the wrong track. Issues such as inflation and crime are killing Democrats.

I expect the national popular vote to be R+ 3-5%. It’s hard to see Democrats nationwide outrun Biden’s awful approval rating by more than 5%.

I think the margin should be enough for Republicans to win anywhere between 235-240 seats. A pretty decent night.

U.S. Senate

Republicans should take control of the body. To spell out how difficult it is for Democrats to hold the Senate, they must win 4 out of 5 tossup states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania. I expect the final margin to be 52-47 with one runoff.

Right now, I’m predicting Blake Masters to win in Arizona. I think Kari Lake is going to drag him over the finish line. The debate smackdown he laid on Mark Kelly has made Kelly look vulnerable. Finally, let’s go back to fundamentals. Joe Biden very narrowly won Arizona. This is a state that should snap back towards Republicans.

Georgia is going to end in a runoff as neither Raphael Warnock nor Herschel Walker will reach 50%. This will annoy both major parties and I will have a prediction on the runoff at a later date.

Adam Laxalt should be the next Senator from Nevada. The Dems only have a 1% statewide lead in the early voting and in a year where Republicans should swarm to the polls on Election Day and indies are voting red, that’s not going to be good enough for Team Donkey. Nevada is also another state that voted to the right of the country in 2020 and should snap back toward Republicans in a Biden midterm.

Unfortunately, Don Bolduc will very narrowly fall short against Maggie Hassan. Hassan is not exactly popular in the state but New Hampshire may be too much of a blue state for a candidate like Bolduc.

Dr. Mehmet Oz should hold Pennsylvania against vegetable John Fetterman. Fetterman’s poor debate performance has more than likely sealed his fate.


Democrats should pick up Maryland and Massachusetts. Republicans should gain Nevada and Wisconsin.

Republicans are going to fall short in Oregon, New York, Michigan, New Mexico, and Kansas. Democrats are going to be utterly humiliated in Texas, Florida, and Georgia. Kari Lake should win in Arizona and probably by a larger margin than the polls say.

The major problem in the governor’s races is that there have not been enough high-quality polls in most states. This is why I’m hedging on these races.

All that’s left to be done is for the voting and the counting of votes to begin. If you have not voted already, please go vote tomorrow!