Sunday, May 19, 2024

Don Bolduc Takes Lead In New Hampshire U.S. Senate Race

In the latest sign of Democratic weakness in the 2022 midterms, retired Brigadier General Bon Bolduc has taken the lead over Democratic incumbent U.S. Senator Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire. New Hampshire is a state that voted for President Joe Biden by 7.2% in 2020.

The poll from St. Anselm College shows Bolduc leading Hassan 48%-47%. That is an improvement from a September poll that showed Hassan leading Bolduc 49%-43%.

The poll also showed that voters viewed Bolduc more favorably than Hassan. Bolduc has a 46% favorable rating compared 49% unfavorable rating. But that is better than Hassan’s 45% favorable rating compared to 54% unfavorable rating.

Many people thought this race was lost for Republicans when Bolduc won the Republican nomination. Democrats even spent money to boost Bolduc in his primary contest. Democrats believed Bolduc was a weak statewide candidate because he thinks the 2020 election was stolen.

Democrats were counting on moderate Republicans and independents being repulsed by Bolduc in order to help Hassan but it appears that’s not the case. Bolduc leads Hassan among identified swing voters 50%-31%.

It is also helping Bolduc that New Hampshire’s popular Republican Governor Chris Sununu is cruising to reelection. Sununu, a moderate Republican, was recruited by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell to run for the Senate seat. Sununu declined and is backing Bolduc after supporting someone else in the primary.

What is also weighing Democrats down in the Granite State is President Joe Biden’s unpopularity. Biden is seen unfavorably by 56% of New Hampshire voters compared to 43% who see him favorably. In addition, 71% of New Hampshire voters believe the country is going in the wrong direction.

Finally, Bolduc may have another “X factor” on his side. Republican voters are paying more attention to the election than Democrats. This could indicate that Republicans are more enthusiastic about voting.

If Democrats are struggling to hold a U.S. Senate seat in a state that Biden won by over 7%, then they are struggling all over the country. We could be looking at a big red wave washing over the United States next week.

I’m not entirely sure I would call the Bolduc the favorite in this race. After all, this is just one poll and he has been behind in every other poll conducted in this race. But given how the race has tightened up beyond most pundits’ expectations and the fact that undecideds almost always break against the incumbent, a Bolduc win is not out of the question.