Friday, July 12, 2024

Independent Women Are Moving – Quickly – To The GOP, And What That Means

Silent majorities are not usually quiet on election day. Just as the so-called silent majority in the 1970s played a decisive role in getting Richard Nixon elected in 1968 and 1972, these larger groups of voters are often decisive in close elections.

One of the most important and often silent groups of voters that are likely to be critically important in the upcoming mid-term is independent and suburban women.

This demographic went for Trump in 2016, before going Democrat in 2018 and 2020. The Democrats opened up a nearly 20-point edge with this group in both the 2018 mid-term elections and the 2020 elections. The Democrats, of course, came out ahead in both of those election cycles. Trump lost this demographic to Biden on paper by nearly 20 points.  Suburban women have been critically important in elections during the last three cycles.

This is why the recent move of this key demographic to Republicans both in polls and in recent elections, such as Glenn Youngkin’s victory over Terry McAuliffe in last year’s Virginia governor’s race, is so important. Recent polling data shows a significant move of suburban and independent women to the Republican side. The latest Wall Street Journal polling has seen a 26% shift in suburban women’s opinions toward Republican candidates. The Wall Street Journal shows that suburban women are favoring Republican candidates by 15% over the Democrats. This paper’s same polling data showed that 85% of women who are within this demographic were also heavily motivated to vote. The economy was the most important issue to them, with 34% ranking this issue as number one. 54% of these women said the country is already in a recession, and 78% said the country is headed in the wrong direction.

The Wall Street Journal’s polling data also showed a significant in the opinions of suburban women toward the Republican party over the last three months, since August. What’s particularly interesting about this significant change in the opinions of suburban women, is this is coming despite Roe v. Wade having been overturned in June, a decision that the Left thought would both help them with female voters, as well as energize the Democratic base.

Abortion, as a motivating issue for this key demographic, has been an utter fizzle.

The three major issues pushing these women to the Republican side appear to be the economy, crime, and education. Parents’ rights was a big issue in the Virginia governor’s race, where McAuliffe made the mistake of suggesting out loud at a debate that parents shouldn’t be too involved in their children’s education. In this election cycle, crime has become a bigger issue than education, and even in some places more than the economy. In New York City, nearly 34% of voters cited crime as the most important issue, ahead of even the economy. In some races, such as the Pennsylvania Senate race between Mehmet Oz and John Fetterman, Oz has run almost entirely on crime, and he’s completely erased a double-digit lead by focusing his campaign on the sadly out-of-control violence in Philadelphia.

Fetterman’s campaign, of cours, has also been hurt by his health issues and lack of transparency on his recovery from the stroke he had several months ago. But he’s shamelessly flogged the abortion issue, even calling himself, in one cringe-inducing campaign appearance, “John Fetterwoman.”

In a country where the number of independents and swing voters gets smaller every year, suburban women are likely to decide this election. Trump on paper lost these women to Biden by nearly 20 points, and he still almost won the election in 2020. The Republican party should be able to easily take control of both the House and Senate in 2022 if this recent polling data is correct. The conservative base is highly motivated, much of the democratic base is not energized, and time is running out for the left as the upcoming mid-term elections fast approach. Suburban women are likely to be the deciding factor for the fourth straight election cycle this year, and that means we are increasingly looking at what should be a wave election for Republicans.