Saturday, May 25, 2024

New and Detailed Polling Data: Clear Trump Lead In Swing States on Nearly Every Key Issue

The national polls have consistently underrepresented Republican voters and Trump supporters, for quite some time. There have also been recent examples of polling data being off by a wide margin, with a poll on the eve of the election being released showing Biden had a commanding lead in Wisconsin in 2020, a state the current President barely won. Trump supporters have been less likely to speak to and vocalize their opinions to polling firms. Many polling firms have also clearly put out dishonest information to try to suppress the vote on the right, as the Wisconsin poll showed.

This is why the recent in-depth poll taken by even mostly left-wing news organizations is so interesting. The polling data that recently came from the New York Times and the Philadelphia Inquirer, both left-wing news sources, asked a number of questions on both the candidates and specific issues, and this data showed the former President with a commanding lead over the current President across the board in 5 of 6 swing states. Pollsters interviewed 4.097 likely voters in 6 swing states for this information. The poll showed Trump winning with likely voters by 13 points in Nevada, 9 points in Georgia, and 6 points in Arizona. The only swing state Biden led with likely voters in the polls was Michigan, where he had a 1-point lead over the former President. Biden trailed Trump by 3 points in Pennsylvania.

While this data was not that surprising given the pathetic state of the US economy and Biden’s general incompetence, including his many cognitive failings, the information about likely voters’ opinions on specific issues was telling.

Trump polled ahead of Biden on every single issue except abortion, with 64% of likely voters saying abortion should be legal. Nearly 70 percent of likely voters said that current political and economic systems need to be changed significantly, and most voters predictably favored outsider and former President Trump to reform the government.

Trump polled ahead of Biden on 3 of the most important 4 issues that voters listed in the upcoming election. The former President is trusted more by voters than Biden on the issues of the economy in particular, and immigration. Abortion, again, was the only factor that voters listed as an important issue going into the next election that they favored Biden. Most voters also predictably viewed the economy as the most important issue right now, with the number coming in at 28 percent. Abortion was the most important issue to 11% of voters, with that issue also coming in behind immigration at 12%.

President Trump is polling ahead of Biden not just in the headline polls, but also on specific issues as well.

The current failed President also relied heavily on younger voters in Michigan in 2020, and recent polling data also shows that this demographic is growing increasingly angry with Biden primarily over issues such as the war in the Middle East and climate change. Biden’s approval of arms shipments to Israel as well as his support of the massive recent oil and gas development plan known as the Willow project has created a significant fracture with younger voters. Voters between the ages of 18 and 29 turned out at a 54% rate in 2020, which was 12 points higher than in 2016. Biden also won this age group by nearly 20 points in 2020. Given the large number of public and private colleges in Michigan, the youth vote is likely to be very important in this critical swing state again in 2024, and Trump has been gaining with this key constituency. Recent polls shows have also actually showed Trump now leading with both Millennial and Gen-Z voters.

The day of trusting polls that just give headline numbers showing simple percentages is over. Still, some of the recent polling data goes in-depth with specific demographic groups on certain issues. Even the recent information that has been published by left-wing news organizations such as the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer, and NPR, all strongly favor Trump in multiple ways. Biden’s support with most parts of his base has weakened significantly since 2020, with nonwhite voters such as Hispanics and Blacks increasingly favoring former President Trump, and younger voters being drawn more to the former President as well. The polls also show that the only issue keeping the upcoming election from likely being a landslide is abortion, with the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade likely resulting in some left-wing and Democratic voters being particularly more concerned about the right to choose being made illegal in several swing states.