Thursday, June 20, 2024

The Six States that Matter for the 2024 Presidential Election

Over the past few weeks, President Donald Trump has hosted rallies in Democrat stronghold states–such as New Jersey and New York. In fact, Trump’s MAGA rally in Wildwood, New Jersey boasted between 80 thousand and 100 thousand attendees.

Some people think that President Trump has a shot to win some Democrat states–such as New York, New Jersey, Minnesota, and others–in this Fall’s presidential election. However, the reality is that these states will not vote for President Trump in November. Now, these states do matter because there are several swing Congressional districts in these states–especially in New York. So, Trump hosting rallies in these states will likely boost voter turnout in these key swing districts in Democrat-stronghold states.

In reality, the 2024 presidential election will likely come down to six key swing states: Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

According to publicly available polling, the other 44 states in America are pretty much set in terms of which presidential candidate they will select. So, the map below from 270toWin shows which states lean toward Joe Biden and Donald Trump as of May 2024–excluding the six major swing states.

Fortunately, redistricting from the 2020 census benefitted Donald Trump and Republicans more than Joe Biden & Democrats. Population growth in the Republican-leaning states of Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and Montana led to 3 additional electoral college votes for Donald Trump when compared to the 2020 presidential election (map below from 270toWin). Therefore, Trump has more of a built-in electoral college advantage compared to 2020.

Currently, President Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in the 538 aggregate polling average in all six major swing states. Here is Trump’s lead in each swing state according to 538: Arizona (4.3%), Georgia (5.3%), Michigan (0.5%), Nevada (6.4%), Pennsylvania (1.6%), and Wisconsin (1.3%)

Based on this current polling data, the 2024 presidential election is shaping up to be a close one. While President Trump is in a solid position right now, a lot could change between now and Election Day. “America First” patriots cannot stand idly by with such a close election on the horizon!

Back in 2016, President Trump’s margin of victory over Hillary Clinton was roughly a combined 80 thousand votes in three swing states: Michigan (a 11k margin), Wisconsin (23k margin), and Pennsylvania (44k margin). Over 136 million votes were cast in the 2016 presidential election, and the difference in that election was under 0.06% of the vote total. Every vote counted in the 2016 election, and we could very well see the 2024 presidential election come down to tens or hundreds-of-thousands of votes.

With the possibility of a small margin of victory for either candidate, we would be remiss to to not consider the effect of 3rd party candidates in this presidential election cycle. For comparison, third party candidates’ vote totals in the 1992 and 2016 elections exceed the winner’s margin of victory (i.e. Bill Clinton and Donald Trump respectively). So, we should definitely keep an eye on the three major 3rd party candidates in the 2024 election cycle–Jill Stein (Green party), Cornel West (Justice for All party), and Robert Kennedy Jr (Independent).

Anyways, I hope you enjoyed today’s article about the 2024 presidential election. Stay tuned for more coverage of the 2024 election cycle!