Why the Polls are Likely Significantly Overstating Harris’ Support

There have been few pieces of data that have been more worthless than presidential polls since 2016. While some national polls were slightly better in 2020, the left has constantly pushed inaccurate and manipulated data to promote false narratives about the national race since Trump was the Republican nominee eight years ago.

When Hillary Clinton ran against The Donald, nearly every single national poll showed the former Secretary of State beating Trump by between 3-6 points in the weeks leading up to this election. In 2020 the polls again underestimated Trump’s strength, with one ABC News and Washington Post poll absurdly showing Joe Biden up by 17 points on Trump in Wisconsin just 2 weeks before the presidential election. Biden won Wisconsin by less than 1 percentage point.

While Harris has risen slightly in the polls from where a senile Biden who could not complete a sentence in that fateful June 27 debate, Harris is still inextricably tied to the failed and incompetent administration she has played a key role in as Vice President. Today, 65 percent of people think the country is headed in the wrong direction.

The American people are clearly looking for change.

Trump also polls significantly better than Harris on the issues that are most important to most people, such as the economy and the border.

The polls have consistently understated support for Trump for several reasons in the past. People with less formal education who lean heavily to the former President tend to not use or answer calls from smartphones. Trump has also changed the electorate, with more voters from different demographics that pollsters typically focus on less, such as individuals in rural communities, so undersampling these people heavily distorts the results of polls involving the former President as well.

Finally, the corrupt and biased national media lie to the public nearly every day by telling them that Trump is racist, so many supporters of the former President are also less likely to express these individuals’ political opinions publicly, particularly to someone they don’t know or trust. A good example of this was polling done in Pennsylvania right before the 2016 election. The only polling organization that put out accurate polling data on Pennsylvania in the 2016 presidential election was the Trafalgar Group, because these individuals accounted for the bias of people’s responses when asked about former President Trump.

The Trafalgar Group has Trump leading in most polls as of August 10th as well.

With a black woman now being the Democratic nominee, the pressure that many people who already know that supporting Trump is not politically correct in many parts of the country are likely to feel should increase significantly. The already misleading polls should likely become even more distorted than usual, and there is also a significant enthusiasm gap between the right and left right now even after Biden has stepped down. The difference in the appearance at political rallies is one piece of evidence showing this fact to be true.

The absurd Washington Post and ABC poll put out just 2 weeks before the 2020 Presidential election showing Biden leading by 17 points in the state of Wisconsin was a deliberate effort to depress the Trump vote. Some of the polls are being similarly manipulated today to create a fake narrative that the incompetent Vice President has significant momentum. The country has clearly rendered a failing verdict on the Harris-Biden administration, and Trump is trusted significantly more than the former California Senator on most of the issues in the election. The polls in this election cycle are not likely going to be any more accurate in assessing Trump’s strength in 2024 than these points of information were in 2020 or 2016.