Polls tighten for Casey, McCormick match-up

The latest polling averages for Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate contest show a tight race shaping up just two weeks from Election Day.

Democratic incumbent Sen. Bob Casey Jr. leads Republican challenger Dave McCormick by 1.9% in seven polls conducted between Oct. 5 and Oct. 19.

Casey’s spread has ranged between 2% and 4% in five of the contests. In the most recent two polls – conducted by the right-leaning Trafalgar Group and the more centrist Atlas Intel – McCormick has tied with Casey and led him 1%, respectively.

The averages are compiled by RealClear Politics, which follows national races across the country.

The race is narrowing as former President Donald Trump inches toward Vice President Kamala Harris’s national lead of 0.9%.

It’s unclear if the downballot effect has helped bring McCormick within striking distance of Casey after trailing by as many as 14% over the last six months. What is clear, however, is how impactful a McCormick upset would be to Democrats’ ability to hold onto a majority in the U.S. Senate.

The data also follows two debates in which the candidates attacked each other’s policies on the economy, immigration and reproductive rights.

All three issues have been identified by voters as key to their decision in November, particularly in the presidential race.

The split among the top two campaigns further illustrates the contested nature of Pennsylvania’s electorate. Arguably the most pivotal battleground, the commonwealth’s 19 electoral votes are considered a key piece of both presidential candidates’ path to the White House.

And according to Emerson College Polling and a RealClear Pennsylvania poll conducted in late September, economic concerns are what keeps Trump and Harris neck-and-neck.

The poll asked 1,000 likely voters in the commonwealth and has a margin of error of +/- 3%.

A Marist poll released nine days after the debate produced the same split. The survey questioned 1,476 voters and has a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.