Small businesses’ uncertainty hits new high, survey finds

Newly released polling data shows that American small business uncertainty hit an all-time high and optimism remains low just weeks before Election Day.

The National Federation of Independent businesses on Monday released the survey, which showed small business uncertainty rose last month to the highest level ever recorded by NFIB.

“Small business owners are feeling more uncertain than ever,” NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg said in a statement.

Small businesses have been crushed by inflation in recent years, with prices rising more than 20% since President Joe Biden took office. Pandemic-era shutdowns and supply chain issues also put many businesses in debt or drained their savings.

Many larger businesses had more reserves or access to capital to help them survive COVID while smaller businesses went under.

“Twenty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business (higher input and labor costs), down one point from August but remaining the top issue,” NFIB said.

Inflation has slowed from its feverish pace earlier in Biden’s term, but prices remain elevated.

“A net negative 17% of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, down one point from August and the lowest reading of this year,” NFIB said. “The net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes rose nine points to a net negative 9% (seasonally adjusted).”

Small business owners have also reported difficulty with the labor market.

“Uncertainty makes owners hesitant to invest in capital spending and inventory, especially as inflation and financing costs continue to put pressure on their bottom lines,” Dunkelberg continued. “Although some hope lies ahead in the holiday sales season, many Main Street owners are left questioning whether future business conditions will improve.”