The State of the 2024 Presidential election
Two months ago, I published an article here on RVIVR about the state of the 2024 presidential election. Roughly one month after Joe Biden dropped out of the race, Vice President Kamala Harris started to gain considerable momentum in the battleground states and in national polling. President Donald Trump’s considerable advantage against a diminished Joe Biden seemingly disappeared not long after the Democratic party elite switched out Biden with Kamala Harris.
Despite the utter incompetence of President Trump’s top two political advisors (Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles), President Trump’s political fortunes have finally shifted in the right direction.
With that introduction, let’s look at the battleground states:
*courtesy of Real Clear Politics
According to the RCP polling average, Donald Trump is now leading Kamala Harris in all 7 major swing states. In contrast, Kamala Harris led most of the swing states polls in the month of September. In particular, Michigan and Pennsylvania have made considerable advances toward the Trump column with election season coming to a crescendo.
Out of the 7 swing states, President Trump can win the Presidency if he wins the Sun Belt states (Arizona, Georgia, & North Carolina) and picks up one of the Rust Belt states (either Wisconsin, Michigan, or Pennsylvania). Just two weeks before election day, President Trump is in a strong position.
Besides the battleground states, Kamala Harris’s lead in national polling is rapidly deteriorating. In fact, her polling lead as of 10/20/24 is now down to only 0.9% in the RCP average. Just one month ago, her polling lead over President Trump was above 2% in the RCP average.
*courtesy of Real Clear Politics
Clearly, the momentum in shifting away from Kamala Harris in a significant portion of the major political polls. For instance, Atlas Intel was one of the most accurate pollsters in the 2020 presidential cycle, and Atlas Intel‘s most recent poll had President Trump winning the national popular vote by 3%.
The betting markets have also started to move favorably for President Trump. According to Polymarket (the world’s largest prediction market), Trump now possesses his largest lead in the betting markets since late July. Bettors now favor a Trump victory by over 60%–which is over a double digit increase percentage-wise in the past month.
*courtesy of Polymarket
As we probably know from the 2020 presidential election, anything could happen on election night. The election could go either away due to a variety of factors (e.g. voter turnout, 3rd party voter share, election night counting shenanigans, etc.). However, any neutral political observer can see that political momentum for this presidential election is finally shifting back toward President Trump.
In closing, I have a solid video to recommend that recaps the recent momentum toward Trump in the swing states. Definitely check out political analyst RedEaglePolitics’s recent YouTube video on this topic:
