Analyzing the 2024 US presidential election results
We are six days removed from the 2024 US Presidential election. In a stunning surprise, Donald J. Trump won in dominant fashion over Vice President Kamala Harris.
By the end of election night, President-elect Donald Trump won 32 of out 50 US states, swept all 7 battleground states, and took home the popular vote–the first time for a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years. Most political pundits and observers believed that this presidential election was going to be a toss-up. However, the American people resoundingly voted to give Donald J. Trump a second presidential term.
For today’s post, I wanted to analyze the data behind President Trump’s resounding victory in the 2024 election. We will look at the vote margin for all 50 states, voter demographics, and the 7 major swing states.
1. Vote Margin by state
The 2024 election was a “red wave” election for Donald Trump. The President-elect received a higher vote percentage in forty-nine out of fifty US states when compared to 2020. The state of Washington is the only state that shifted toward the Democratic party in the 2024 election.
The Daily Mail compared the vote margins in the 2024 and 2020 presidential elections for each individual US state. So, you can look at the data below if you are curious.
What’s remarkable about this election is that Donald Trump performed better in red states, blue states, and purple states. Additionally, states that we once considered swing states are now safe Republican states. Florida, Ohio, and Iowa were once battleground states in the early 2000s. In fact, Barack Obama won all three of those states in the 2012 US presidential election. But for the 2024 election, Donald Trump won Iowa, Florida, and Ohio by over a 11% margin. This election cemented those three states as solid “red” (i.e. Republican) states in presidential elections. These additions to Republican’s electoral map offset the losses of formerly Republican-leaning states like Virginia and Colorado.
On a separate note, the rightward shift of the American electorate played a role in President Trump winning the popular vote. While a couple of states are still counting votes, Trump will likely win the popular vote by a few million more votes than VP Harris.
After all was said and done, Donald Trump finished the night with 312 electoral college votes—the most for a Republican presidential candidate since 1988.
2. Voter Demographics
Next, we are going to take a quick look at the election’s results based on Voter Demographics. President-elect Donald Trump performed better among several demographic groups when comparing the 2024 and 2020 elections.
Based on a voter analysis from Fox News, here are several notable voter groups that he performed better with in 2024; 18-29 year-olds, Roman Catholics, Protestant Christians, Hispanic men, Black men (~20%), non-college educated voters, households with under $100k income, and registered Independents.
The following graphic from the Daily Mail provides another high level look at how several voter blocs voted in the 2020 and 2024 US presidential elections:
3. Swing State Analysis
For the 2024 election, most political observers viewed 7 states as being “battleground” or “swing” states. The available polling data for these seven states showed them as “toss-ups” for either Kamala Harris or Donald Trump
In the end, President-elect Donald Trump won all 7 battleground states—giving him a decisive victory in the electoral college.
The graphics below from Fox News show the percentages in which President Trump won these states.
On a historical note, President Trump won multiple swing states that Republican candidates typically struggled in. For instance, Trump is the first Republican presidential candidate to win the state of Nevada since 2004. Going into the 2024 election, Democrats won the state of Nevada in 6 of the last 8 elections.
Additionally, the 3 Rust Belt battleground states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania went to Democratic presidential candidates in 7 of the last 8 presidential cycles (2016 being the only year a Republican candidate won all 3 of those states). After losing these three states in 2020, President Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania in the 2024 election. Therefore, Trump has now won these states in 2 of the past 3 elections. Before 2016, Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1984 was the last time that a Republican won all three of these states in the same election.
Overall, the 2024 presidential election was a massive success for Donald Trump and the MAGA movement. The American people have given Trump and the Republican party a political mandate to solve the country’s pressing issues—such as mass immigration, persistent inflation, and a chaotic global landscape.
Say hello to the 47th President of the United States: Donald J. Trump.
