California’s millions of uncounted ballots could decide the House majority

California has nearly five million uncounted ballots a week after the election — ballots that could determine whether Republicans have a trifecta in federal government.

Only 243,976 ballots have arrived after Election Day last Tuesday, meaning that the uncounted ballots are almost entirely all ballots that arrived on or before Election Day. By contrast, Florida had counted nearly all ballots by the evening of Election Day. 

By the time of publication, AP had called 205 House races for Democrats and 214 for Republicans, leaving both parties short of the 218 required for a House majority. With Republicans in control of the Senate and winning both the Electoral College and popular vote for the presidency, maintaining control of the House would provide a broad mandate for Republican governing priorities. 

At eight remaining uncalled House races in California, three of which currently favor Republicans, the nation’s most populous state holds the key to keeping or losing the Republican House majority.

Among the six highly contested House races covered last week in California, California’s 13th, 22nd, 41st, 45th, and 47th Districts remain in play, with Republican Congressman Mike Garcia conceding to Democratic challenger and former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides. Garcia won by just 333 votes in 2020 in the defense-heavy districtconsisting of the suburbs and exurbs north of Los Angeles.

Two surprisingly close races are in California’s 9th and 21st Districts, where incumbent Democrats hold narrow majorities that are likely to grow with the counting of more mail-in ballots that tend to favor Democrats. 

Republican Congressman John Duarte retains a nearly 3,000 vote lead in the 13th District that Democratic challenger Adam Gray could quickly erode, while Republican Congressman David Valadao holds a significant lead of just under 10,000 votes against Democrat Rudy Salas in the 22nd District. 

Congressman Ken Calvert, considered one of the most vulnerable California Republicans going into the election, is still surviving with an almost 8,000 vote lead in his second matchup against Will Rollins in the 41st District. Congresswoman Michelle Steel in the 45th District is down to an under 4,000 vote lead against Democratic challenger Derek Tran, suggesting the race could go either way, while in California’s 47th District Democrat Dave Min has taken the likely permanent lead against Republican Scott Baugh in the race to fill the seat left vacant by Congresswoman Katie Porter.