Three Predictions for the 2024 presidential election cycle

Here we are: election day.

Every four years, tens of millions of American citizens cast their ballots for the US presidential election. Besides the US presidency, Americans will have the chance to elect their representatives to the US House of Representatives and the US Senate. Control of the Federal government is at stake in this election cycle, and all eyes will be on the 7 major battleground states for the presidential election—i.e. Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.

Most political pundits think that the 2024 election cycle will be extremely close. In fact, public polling from 538 and Real Clear Politics seems to point to a “down-to-the-wire” election result for both the US presidency and the US Congress.

Therefore, I’ve decided to share my 2024 election prediction today with the RVIVR audience. For this post, we will discuss my predictions for the US presidency, the US House of Representatives, and the US Senate.

Without further ado, let’s dive into my three predictions for the 2024 election cycle.

#1 US Presidency

For the 2024 presidential election, there are seven swing states up for grabs. In my prediction, I have Donald Trump winning 4 of the 7 swing states (Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania) and Kamala Harris winning 3 of the 7 swing states–Nevada, Wisconsin, and Michigan.

Based on my prediction, Donald Trump will win the election with 281 electoral college votes. Consequently, Kamala Harris would end up falling short with 257 electoral college votes.

As mentioned above, all 7 major swing states are up for grabs. So, it’s definitely within the realm of possibility for Trump to win all 7 seven swing states, but it’s also equally possible for Harris to win 4-5+ of the swing states and pull of an electoral college victory.

#2 US Senate

Of my 3 predictions for the 2024 election cycle, my prediction for the US Senate is by far the most likely to occur. Currently, the Democratic party holds 51 out of the 100 US Senate seats. However, this year’s election map is much more favorable to Senate Republicans.

Among political observers, there is almost a consensus expectation for Republicans to flip at least two current Democratic seats—West Virginia and Montana. Besides those two seats, Republicans also have a decent shot of flipping a couple more swing Senate seats. Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Ohio all have one Senate seat up for election, and Republicans have a solid chance of winning a couple of those seats.

In my prediction, I have Republicans taking back control of the US Senate. My final tally: 53 Republican Senators and 47 Democratic Senators.

For the US Senate, I estimate that Republicans will win a floor/minimum of 51 seats and a ceiling/maximum of 55 seats depending on how some of the battleground states move on election night.

#3 US House of Representatives

In my personal opinion, this year’s electoral contest for the House of Representatives is the quintessential political “toss-up”.

Currently, Republicans hold an eight seat majority in the US House of Representatives. However, redistricting in two Southern states (Alabama and Louisiana) will give House Democrats two extra seats off the bat.

The current leadership for House Republicans has not inspired much confidence in my prediction. House Democratic candidates have dominated their Republican opponents in terms of fundraising. So, I don’t anticipate House Republicans expanding their current seat majority.

In my prediction, I forecast Congressional Republicans to hold onto the US House with a slight majority—3 seats in my prediction.

It’s certainly possible for down ballot Republicans to overperform my prediction. President Trump’s presence on the ballot could give House Republicans just enough of a boost to maintain or slightly expand their current majority. Nevertheless, the US House is shaping up to be a “50-50” tossup as the voting polls close.

As a final reminder, we may not know the final election results tonight on election night. So, it may take some time to see if election predictions come to pass or now. However, I foresee Republicans finishing with a similar outcome to 2016—when Republicans gained majorities in both Congressional chambers and Donald Trump won the presidency.

We will have to wait and see.