Trump Invoking Manifest Destiny Sends a Strong Message to Putin and Xi
The strangest post-election phenomenon has to be the reemergence of Manifest Destiny,concept that hasn’t been in vogue since the late 19th century.
Manifest Destiny was a term coined in 1845 that reflected the idea that the United States would inevitably expand to the Pacific Ocean. This period began with Thomas Jefferson’s Louisiana Purchase in 1803 and continued with the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo in 1848, which ended the Mexican-American War and added an additional 525,000 square miles of U.S. territory. The end of Manifest Destiny coincided with the turn of the century when the U.S. completed the purchase of Alaska in 1867, annexed Hawaii in 1898, and took Puerto Rico by force in 1899. Guam and American Samoa followed in 1899 and 1900, respectively.
From a territorial standpoint, Manifest Destiny was over by 1900, or so we thought. But recently, we have heard the term bandied about by several staff members at the White House, including the president himself.
Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal
I might be wrong, but I don’t recall ever hearing President Trump mention a desire to annex Canada, Greenland and the Panama Canal on the campaign trail. He occasionally referenced purchasing Greenland during his first term, but it was generally shrugged off as another amusing Trumpism.
However, since his election victory, the president has repeatedly restated his desire to make Canada the 51st state, reiterating the claim that our northern neighbor could not exist without U.S. charity in the form of a $200 to $250 billion annual trade deficit.
Simultaneously, Trump has lobbied for the purchase of Greenland, much to the dismay of Denmark, because we need it for “national defense.” Perhaps the most contentious issue of all is the Panama Canal, where Trump does seem to have some basis for his claim that Panama has violated the terms of the original agreement that turned the canal over to Panama in 1977. To that end, Trump has gone so far as to threaten Panama militarily.
The Brilliance of the Trump Strategy
Donald Trump has many years of business experience at the highest levels. One might argue he is the most polished negotiator who has ever held the office of president. While his bargaining techniques may have been refined over the years, he still adheres to the basic principles outlined in his 1987 best seller, “The Art of the Deal.”
1. Think big: “I like thinking big. I always have. To me, it’s very simple: if you’re going to be thinking anyway, you might as well think big.”
2. Protect the downside and the upside will take care of itself: “I always go into the deal anticipating the worst. If you plan for the worst–if you can live with the worst–the good will always take care of itself.”
3. Maximize the options: “I never get too attached to one deal or one approach…I keep a lot of balls in the air, because most deals fall out, no matter how promising they seem at first.”
4. Know your market: “I like to think that I have that instinct. That’s why I don’t hire a lot of number-crunchers, and I don’t trust fancy marketing surveys. I do my own surveys and draw my own conclusions.”
5. Use your leverage: “The worst thing you can possibly do in a deal is seem desperate to make it. That makes the other guy smell blood, and then you’re dead.”
6. Enhance your location: “Perhaps the most misunderstood concept in all of real estate is that the key to success is location, location, location…First of all, you don’t necessarily need the best location. What you need is the best deal.”
7. Get the word out: “One thing I’ve learned about the press is that they’re always hungry for a good story, and the more sensational the better…The point is that if you are a little different, a little outrageous, or if you do things that are bold or controversial, the press is going to write about you.”
8. Fight back: “In most cases I’m very easy to get along with. I’m very good to people who are good to me. But when people treat me badly or unfairly or try to take advantage of me, my general attitude, all my life, has been to fight back very hard.”
9. Deliver the goods: “You can’t con people, at least not for long. You can create excitement, you can do wonderful promotion and get all kinds of press, and you can throw in a little hyperbole. But if you don’t deliver the goods, people will eventually catch on.”
10. Contain the costs: “I believe in spending what you have to. But I also believe in not spending more than you should.”
11. Have fun: “Money was never a big motivation for me, except as a way to keep score. The real excitement is playing the game.”
My argument is that the true intentions of Trump’s aggressive, provocative demands aimed at Canada, Denmark and Panama are not reflected in Trump’s ostensive goals. If we’re being honest, Canada is unlikely to become the 51st state, Denmark is unlikely to relinquish Greenland, and Panama is unlikely to give back the canal.
However, Trump’s threats have definitely gained the attention of the affected parties, and no doubt brought about some anxious hand wringing and brow wiping in Ottawa, Copenhagen and Panama City. As a result, it is probable that all three countries are considering what kind of concessions they could offer to appease Trump and move out of his crosshairs as quickly as possible. I imagine that at some point they all will agree to better deals for the U.S., something along the lines of more equitable trade agreements with Canada, mineral rights and defense agreements with Greenland, and lower fees and preferential treatment in transit of American vessels through the Panama Canal.
Yet, this is still not the end of the message. Far from it.
The Real Message is for Putin and Xi
In the past few years, Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping have both flexed their muscles internationally through military action or the threat thereof. Putin invaded Ukraine and has intimidated several bordering NATO countries. Xi continues to harass and bully Taiwan with ongoing psyops and threats of invasion.
In both instances, it is virtually impossible for the U.S. to assert military dominance geographically in areas that are within each hostile country’s scope of influence without incurring huge losses and encountering extraordinary logistical challenges.
Trump wants no part of the war in Ukraine or a conflict with China over Taiwan.
So, instead, he is sending a very strong message to both leaders that if the 21st century will be dominated by military strength and threats to use it, the U.S. is all in. If the new game is hegemonistic expansion, then let’s roll out the Monroe Doctrine, which provides a basis for control and annexation of any country within the immediate influence of the United States. That’s essentially the entire western hemisphere, by the way.
Don’t be surprised if a threat to invade Cuba comes next.
Putin and Xi need to realize quickly there is a grandmaster in the White House, and he’s itching to play their game.
