Why The California Wildfires Have Significantly Changed the Political Dynamic between Trump and Newsom
Large disasters always have significant short-term and long-term consequences. While obviously the total human cost, economic fallout, and politicals ramifications from the devstating fires in Los Angeles will take years to play out, ths horrific event will have a major impact on the relationship between California and the incoming Trump Administration. Newsom has had Presidential ambitions for some time, and he was one of the first Democrats to speak up after Trump reelection to try to convene a special legislative session to focus on efforts he referred to as protecting his state from the incoming President’s policies. Newsom’s efforts were widely criticized as the pathetic political stunt they were, but his actions show the current Governor of California maintains significant ambitions for the White House.
Gavin Newsom will likely be weakened politically for a number of reasons as the independent investigations into why the devastating fire and the horrifically incompetent response to this disaster occurred. Several facts are already clear. California was not maintaining the state’s Forests properly, there were significant recent budget cuts to the LA Fire Department that the Department Head has already called out, and the response to this calamity was also heavily impacted by a lack of access to water. There were also water pressure issues as well. Even many Democrats and those on the left have spoken about the incompetence of the Governor as well as that of Karen Bass, who took days to even return to LA after the fires broke out.
California will need significant assistance from the Federal Government not just to manage the fire, but also to rebuild the homes as well as the public and private buildings that have been destroying in this disaster. There have been over 12,000 buildings that have been lost so far. The state of California also has significant financial exposure to the homes destroyed in the state because of the FAIR plan. That policy initiative was a program that was enacted to insure homes in California for people who couldn’t get insurance in the private sector, and the State is estimated to have $112 billion exposure to homes in LA. Many private insurance companies will obviously likely be more reluctant to insure private residences in the area as people look to rebuild as well, further complicating people’s efforts to rebuild their homes as well.
Gavin Newsom will likely need the Federal Government’s help with the state’s rebuilding in addition to obviously needing assistance with the current effort to put out the fires. The Governor also can no longer afford to be seen as putting groups such as illegal immigrants ahead of the pain that his own citizens are feeling in significant part from the failed policies of his policies. This is important because California has the largest number of illegal immigrants in the United States, with the number thought to be close to 2 million. While Trump will obviously do what’s necessary to save lives, Newsom can ill afford to have a bad relationship with the incoming administration as his State requests significant federal assistance both now and over the long term. If Newsom and California cooperate with Trump’s national deportation plan, that will likely set the tone for Governors who are thinking of opposing the incoming administration as well, and make resistance to the policies the soon-to-be President ran on much easier to implement.
