Why Trump Will Succeed at Brokering a Lasting Peace Agreement Between Russian and Ukraine
Donald Trump is substance over style. While Obama read from teleprompters, used slogans about hope and change, and constantly spoke at length, the current President is all about action. Trump hasn’t even been President for 2 terms, and he’s already passed the largest tax cut in US history, renegotiated NAFTA, established the Abraham Accords, and secured the border twice now. The President also reached important deals with China to help US farmers and was successful at keeping the world a peaceful place for most of his first term.
Trump’s most famous book is the Art of the Deal. The President is a master of how to negotiate and reach agreements that make the US stronger. Trump understands the most important key to any successful negotiation is to correctly apply leverage. While the irrelevant legacy media whined incessantly about Trump’s tariffs, the reality is the President is simply using this tool as ways to get countries such as Mexico and Canada to the negotiating table so he has the leverage to reach key deals on issues such as trade and border security. Trump has also done a good job of being tough on America’s adversaries, such as China and Russia, while at the same time being able to establish relationships with leaders such as Xi and Putin. Trump’s relationships with leaders such as Kim Jong Un in North Korea helped stabilize the region. Trump is clearly seen as tough and intelligent by America’s competitors and enemies, as the recent decision by Hamas to release the hostage right after his November election victory. Foreign leaders trust and respect Trump, they did not trust or respect Biden or Obama, and that’s a big part of the reason why the world was less stabile when those failed leaders were in office.
Trump has the respect of Putin. Despite the usual fake narrative that Trump was soft on the Russian dictator, the opposite was true. Trump sanctioned Putin, ended the Nord 2 Pipeline, and also armed Ukraine, an action Obama refused to do despite the State Department’s objections. Trump has a relationship with Putin, and he has his respect too. What the President has with Zelenskyy is leverage. The Ukrainian President knows Europe is not reliable, he needs the support of the United States. Zelenskyy also hasn’t held elections since 2019 after declaring martial law and then extending his order. The Ukrainian leader’s current approval number is below 20 percent, he needs the US to support his decision to continue to delay elections to stay in power as well. Trump wants elections to occur, he won’t allow Zelenskyy to make himself a dictator but the prospect of Ukraine being able to vote is another key point of leverage that the President has as the parties enter negotiations in Saudi Arabia.
Trump has leverage with Zelenskyy, and he has the respect of Putin. The Russian dictator is also not dumb, he knows that while Trump has been very tough on Russia, the current President isn’t committed to the kind of regime change that the previous administration was as well. Putin will likely believe that Trump will be more fair than the next President of the United States would be in negotiations given what transpired between him and both Biden and Obama. Even though Trump has been tough on Russia, the President correctly knows that China is the biggest economic and security threat to the US, and the current war between Russia and Ukraine has pushed China and Russia together. Trump is also not interested in weaponizing NATO to start a conflict with Putin, he’s focused on bigger geopolitical threats to the US.
The reality is that both Russia and Ukraine are running out of troops. Putin has recently relied on North Korean troops, and Ukraine has been increasingly desperate to find more manpower as well, with Zelenskyy even sending security officials into nightclubs to detain young men who aren’t fighting and lowering the age of people who can be drafted into the war from 27 to 25 in April of last year. Obama and Biden had no credibility. Obama did nothing when Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and then annexed the Crimean peninsula, and the world knew Biden was senile. Trump is tough and respected, he also has the leverage and relationship to get a meaningful and lasting peace deal finished. While Obama won a Nobel Peace Prize for nothing, and while Trump won’t likely receive any praise from the international community when he helps negotiate a critically important peace deal, the current President’s results will continue to speak for themselves.
