You Almost Have to Respect Chuck Schumer’s Crazy Gamble
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., actually went through with it. He and Senate Democrats shut down the government over using American taxpayer dollars to fund transgender surgery for minors, abortion, and illegal immigrants’ health care.
And I can’t help but respect it.
In a country with democratic institutions, it takes real courage to take the side of the 20 on this many 80-20 issues.
The Democrats signaled to the American people where their priorities really lie by demanding $1.5 trillion in extra spending for what would have been a mere seven-week extension to government funding. To actually shut down the government over it means they’ve taken the side of illegal aliens over American families and transgenderism over paying our troops.
Of course, they make prima facie denials that these funds would go to illegal immigrants or transgender mutilations, but some less savvy Democrats are already saying the quiet part out loud. When a reporter asked Rep. Maxine Waters, R-Calif., why Democrats are fighting for illegal aliens to receive taxpayer-funded health care outside the Capitol on Wednesday, Waters said, “Democrats are demanding health care for everybody.”
Perhaps there’s a long game: Achieve permanent power by importing new voters while sterilizing the next generation. In the words of a hilarious AI video President Donald Trump posted on social media depicting Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., “We have no voters left because of our woke, trans bulls—,” which means “we need new voters, and if we give all these illegal aliens free health care, we might be able to get them on our side so they can vote for us.” Waters’ comments, however, suggest the Left is too incompetent to actually pull it off.
This shutdown was a long time coming. All signs were pointing to a government shutdown this October since the last time Congress voted to fund the government in March. In the March government funding fight, Schumer rallied a small cohort of Senate Democrats to keep his promise that the government would remain open—against the will of the Democrat base and many in his own conference. In the last six and a half months since, the Democrats’ radical-Left base relentlessly pressured their leaders into doing more to “resist” President Donald Trump.
All this meant that Schumer’s political options were extremely limited heading into this government shutdown. He could either lose his base and his conference now by keeping the government open, or risk losing it later over the course of a shutdown. Naturally, Schumer chose the latter.
It’s still a massive gamble for Schumer, but there is evidence to suggest Schumer made the right call given the data available.
The first bit of evidence concerns Schumer’s personal reputation. When Schumer refused to shut down the government in March, his approval ratings plummeted. Before Schumer caved, an Economist/YouGov poll had Schumer’s favorability underwater by 12 points. In two Economist/YouGov polls conducted right after the government remained open, Schumer’s net unfavorability dropped to 34% and 31%, respectively.
The second piece of the puzzle is which party the American people are poised to blame for the shutdown. In the lead up to the shutdown, Adam Carlson, founding Partner of the polling firm Zenith Research, pointed out on X that “in each of the 6 publicly released national polls asking voters who they’d blame for a government shutdown, Republicans get more of the blame by double digit margins.” The average across these polls was Republicans get more of the blame by over 15%.
Why, then, is this still a massive gamble?
As alluded to previously, there’s no guarantee Schumer and Jeffries can maintain their conferences when vulnerable Democrats in the House and Senate start to feel pressured.
But the bigger and more immediate challenge for Schumer and company than Democrat infighting is the GOP’s shutdown strategy. Never in my adult life have I seen Republicans this prepared to win a government shutdown fight. They’ve effectively branded this shutdown the “Schumer Shutdown,” focused on one particular narrative—illegal aliens receiving taxpayer dollars—and they’re hitting it over and over again.
Meanwhile, the administration has placed Democrats in a double-bind by threatening permanent reductions in force during a furlough of non-essential government employees. Either Democrats will have to end the shutdown and bring back federal workers or own the consequences of the furlough they forced.
The government shutdown messaging war will be won in the next few days. For the party withholding government funding, the key to winning that messaging war is selling the American people on the idea that this government shutdown is a righteous government shutdown.
Schumer and the Democrats are arguing that health care amounts to a righteous shutdown. This makes sense given health care is an issue where Democrats typically have an advantage over Republicans, unlike immigration. But to turn COVID-19-era Obamacare subsidies into a holistic “national conversation” about health care is quite a leap.
And, yet, I can’t help but respect it. Whereas Schumer has shut down the government over easily objectionable and obscure health care subsidies, Republicans kept it open even when the Biden administration was actively facilitating the invasion of our country by illegal aliens. Maybe Republicans should take notes.
