Three Challenges: One At A Time?
The basic problem the world is trying to solve — if it can be referred to as a collective thing — is how to manage three challenges with the resources available.
1. the Ukrainian crisis in Europe;
2. the 47 year old proxy war in the Middle East and Southwest Asia;
3. the potential problem that China will seize Taiwan
Each of these 3 began like specks on the horizon. But with inaction each grew and grew. Now the “world” has stark choices. It could let 2 simmer, if 1 and 3 did not impend. But with the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and all out war in 2 starting Oct 7, 2023 neither admits of delay.
Europe finds that the cupboard is bare and it is certain the advent of 3 would mean a global crisis beside which the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz would be a minor inconvenience.
The historical solution to meeting these simultaneous challenges is to concentrate decisively against one so that the remaining resources can be redeployed to meet the other 2 and then to run the same trick again: concentrate on one of the remaining two so that enough strength is left to deter the last challenge.
However, up until 2025 the de facto policy of the world was to do nothing or very little while all three crises continued to grow like metastatic tumors. That policy of inaction was so certain to terminate in catastrophe that even among those who profess horror at events in the Gulf some are actually hoping that a relatively nondestructive defeat of the Islamic Republic might actually help restore stability — provided they can stay in the peanut gallery and crack wise.
If that could happen, the Persian Gulf and Red Sea would reopen, Iran (along with Venezuela) would re-enter the world market. The leverage gained thereby might lead directly to a negotiated settlement in Ukraine.
But this prospect lies at the end of a road marked by many serious risks. What if the Islamic Republic “defeats” the US/Israeli coalition? Who will stop Tehran then? Who will hold back a rejuvenated Russia?
It won’t be Europe, who alas are pursuing a policy of outrage without alternatives; and who even if they would do not have the means even to face Russia singly, let alone in combination with Iran.
If the current crisis in the Gulf does nothing else, it will bring these hard choices to fore; burning through the anodyne bulls**t of politicians. The world faces 1, 2 and 3. How does it plan to do it when there’s no place to hide?
