Sunday, July 21, 2024

Nikki Haley Continues to Emerge as the Republican Establishment’s Trump Alternative

Former U.S. Representative Will Hurd announced he is ending his campaign for the Republican presidential nomination, and instead, he is endorsing Nikki Haley.

“Unfortunately, it has become clear to me and my team that the time has come to suspend our campaign,” Hurd wrote in a statement, adding that “it is important to recognize the realities of the political landscape and the need to consolidate our party around one person to defeat both Donald Trump and President (Joe) Biden.”

Simultaneously, it was reported that Haley raised over $11 million during the period from July to September. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis took in $15 million over the same period, but only $5 million can be spent during the primary season. In contrast, President Trump has over $36 million to spend.

The odd coalition of Never Trumpers, RINO Republicans, the leftist media and Deep State bureaucrats have slowly but steadily pushed Haley’s candidacy forward, and their success is reflected in two recent polls showing her overtaking  DeSantis for second place in the New Hampshire primary. Capitalizing on the influence of anti-Trump forces, it seems increasingly likely Haley will assume the mantle of this election cycle’s version of George Bush.

Since George Bush Sr. became president, the Republican establishment has supported a different version of the original Bush in every subsequent election. Pick a candidate: Dole, Bush Jr. McCain, Romney or Jeb!, and you’ll find the common thread of support for neocon forever wars, amnesty for illegal aliens, unnecessary tax cuts, China appeasement and globalization. Haley fits the bill as a staunch neocon who supports the proxy war in Ukraine, advocates for free trade policies and expresses fake outrage over illegal immigration. The truth is, she was largely ineffective in the U.N. and had a mediocre record as governor, including a massive data breach  on her watch that divulged personal information on 3.8 million South Carolina residents.

Never Trumpers are Doing the Math

A poster child for the Never Trump movement, George Will, wrote a recent column urging Tim Scott to drop out of the race and support Haley. It makes one wonder how the race would look if the other candidates dropped out, and who they would endorse. Let’s analyze how the numbers would look if Trump and Haley were the last two remaining candidates.

Ron DeSantis: would likely support Haley

Christie: Haley

Pence: Haley

Hutchinson: Haley

Ramaswamy: Trump

Scott: Unknown

Burgum: Haley

Looking at the latest RealClear Politics national Republican presidential nomination poll, those candidates who would be most likely to endorse Haley command about 22% of the vote. Added to Haley’s 7%, she might draw something close to 30% if every voter follows the advice of their drop-out candidate and supports Haley. That means Trump would draw about 65% (with Ramaswamy’s voters) and still maintain a commanding lead, regardless of who Scott chooses to support.

Everything Needs to Break in Haley’s Favor

No doubt, it’s a heavy lift, but it’s important to remember it’s still early in the cycle. No one knows what effect Trump’s indictments will have on the nominating process, especially if he’s ultimately convicted in one or several of the trials. As more candidates drop out, big money donors will coalesce behind the surviving establishment candidate who represents their RINO values and has the best chance of beating Trump. As the field narrows, Trump will experience increased pressure to debate, and it’s possible Haley does well in a one-on-one encounter.

In a best-case scenario for America, the Never Trump, Bush clone candidate will lose badly and concede early in the primary process. Hopefully, that will spell the end for the Bush-Kemp-Ryan branch of the party, and it will be buried in an unmarked grave once and for all.