The DeSantis Campaign: A Postmortem
As Ron DeSantis folds his tent and returns to Florida, the story of perhaps the most puzzling and misguided campaign in modern political history comes to a close.
The entire effort speaks to hubris, self-delusion and imprudent judgement. In fact, one could argue that DeSantis’ inability to recognize the futility of taking on Trump in this election cycle made him questionable presidential material. Somehow, even though they shared many of the same views on policy, DeSantis talked himself into the idea that he would be more appealing than Trump to the MAGA base.
It’s hard to imagine how he arrived at that conclusion.
More than likely, DeSantis misconstrued his victory in the 2022 midterm elections, amidst disappointing national results, as a mandate of some sort. After a very narrow win in 2018, with a lot of help from Trump, DeSantis beat washed up Charlie Crist comfortably in a state that is growing increasingly red. DeSantis’ America First views proved popular, and at 45, many assumed he was the heir apparent to the MAGA throne in 2028.
Which is exactly why he should have sat out in 2024.
As early as June, I wondered out loud how DeSantis was going to be able to run a campaign that required him to walk on eggshells and thread the needle. Even DeSantis himself expressed concerns that he might “piss off all his (Trump’s) voters.” That’s one hell of a dilemma. Speak too softly, and no one will listen. Speak too loudly, and you’ll make a lot of enemies.
That left DeSantis with no option but to avoid attacking Trump directly while staking out new ground. The approach was confusing to voters and led to some absurd moments such as the time DeSantis promised to “flatten” the Bahamas if they invaded Florida. Weak attacks on Trump were tepid and ineffectual, including a claim Trump was an LGBQTIA+ advocate and calling him out on Covid lockdowns. Unfortunately for DeSantis, everyone remembers the no-win straight jacket the left put Trump in during the early days of the pandemic. Trump’s choice was to follow the advice of the “experts” or take the blame for every single Covid-related death.
Trump, however, had no such restrictions, and he launched a blistering barrage against DeSantis on a daily basis, calling him disloyal, giving him an unflattering nickname (DeSanctimonious) and running an endless number of videos showing DeSantis praising Trump and MAGA during his 2018 campaign.
During his pre-campaign planning sessions, DeSantis had to know how Trump would react to his candidacy. Has the former president ever responded to a threat in any manner except a full-out assault? Could DeSantis have been so delusional he believed Trump wouldn’t make it very personal? Maybe he should have talked to Ted Cruz before declaring…
The Tough Task of Image Reconstruction
Over the last month, the DeSantis campaign was unraveling so rapidly, one couldn’t help but wonder if a Democrat operative had infiltrated the inner circle. In sum total, the only truly rational action that came from DeSantis since he announced his candidacy was his declaration that he was suspending his campaign.
It’s clear to me that a majority of Republican primary voters want to give Donald Trump another chance,” DeSantis said, adding: “He has my endorsement because we can’t go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear, a repackaged form of warmed-over corporatism that Nikki Haley represents.
Well, while it’s not effusive, at least it’s a start.
The damage DeSantis has done to his image cannot be overstated. He returns to Florida significantly diminished, and the air of invincibility he once enjoyed, which is huge in politics, has evaporated. At this point, his biggest asset is the knowledge that time heals old wounds, and hopefully, the electorate will forgive and forget in the years leading up to 2028.
However, what was once considered an almost sure bet candidacy is now likely a longshot.
DeSantis is going to have to contend with Vivek Ramaswamy, who is far more articulate, persuasive and energetic. Ramaswamy also has four years to deal with his largest negative, which is the (irrational) fear he is Obama in MAGA clothing. Once again, DeSantis will have a difficult time distinguishing himself on policy because control of the Republican party is in the final stages of transitioning from Wall Street and the defense industry to the American working class. It’s likely every Republican candidate will be advocating America First policies in 2028. Whether DeSantis’ stiff, robotic and uncomfortable delivery style will cut through the negatives he brought upon himself is yet to be seen.
A wise businessman once told me that every truly innovative product will retain at least 50% of its market share even when the cheaper copycats appear. It’s a great rule to remember. The iPhone still has over 50% of the market; Tesla controls 60%.
From the moment he rode down the elevator at Trump Towers in 2015, Donald Trump demonstrated he is the “new, innovative product” Republican voters had been searching for. MAGA voters were never going to abandon him in numbers large enough for another candidate to win the nomination.
DeSantis can blame the indictments or whatever else he wants, but Donald Trump was ALWAYS going to be the 2024 Republican nominee.
It’s amazing Ron DeSantis couldn’t see that.
