Zelenskyy Ready to Make Major Concessions in Ukraine War
So, there may be light at the end of the tunnel in the Ukraine proxy war after all.
In remarks that were largely absent from the U.S. mainstream media, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy indicated he was seeking an end to the war with Russia sooner rather than later. Recognizing the reality of Ukraine’s futile war effort, Zelenskyy appears ready to cede land to Russia’s President Vladimir Putin in exchange for security guarantees from NATO.
“If we want to stop the hot phase of the war, we need to take under the NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control,” Zelenskyy said in an interview with Sky News. “We need to do it fast. And then on the [occupied] territory of Ukraine, Ukraine can get them back in a diplomatic way.”
This is a massive policy shift and an admission of something many of us knew all along. Whether the war was preempted by the Minsk accords, or ended on the battlefield, ultimately, short of direct NATO intervention, Russia was going to take the land it wanted from Ukraine.
The Minsk Accords
Speaking of the Minsk Accords, they were negotiated in two parts, with Minsk 2 being the more substantive of the agreements. Among the provisions in Minsk 2 were 13 key points:
* Immediate, comprehensive ceasefire.
* Withdrawal of heavy weapons by both sides.
* OSCE monitoring.
* Dialogue on interim self-government for Donetsk and Luhansk, in accordance with Ukrainian law, and acknowledgement of special status by parliament.
* Pardon, amnesty for fighters.
* Exchange of hostages, prisoners.
* Humanitarian assistance.
* Resumption of socioeconomic ties, including pensions.
* Ukraine to restore control of state border.
* Withdrawal of foreign armed formations, military equipment, mercenaries.
* Constitutional reform in Ukraine including decentralization, with specific mention of Donetsk and Luhansk.
* Elections in Donetsk and Luhansk.
* Intensify Trilateral Contact Group’s work including representatives of Russia, Ukraine and OSCE.
In light of where we are now, it wasn’t a bad agreement, especially when looked at through the lens of the war that has dragged on for two years. The critical points of Minsk include establishing Donetsk and Luhansk as regions separate from Ukraine. Since both are overwhelmingly populated by ethnic Russians, it made sense from a historical perspective to carve them out and allow them to operate autonomously. This would have essentially created an easement giving Russia access to warm water ports in Crimea, something Putin lost when the U.S. engineered a coup that deposed the duly elected president, Viktor Yanukovych, in 2014.
Prisoners would have been exchanged, socioeconomic ties restored, and Ukraine would have retained control of the border.
The treaty, which Zelenskyy and Putin had tentatively agreed to, was abandoned at the last moment when Prime Minister Boris Johnson pressured Zelenskyy to end the negotiations. Apparently, Johnson claimed he was representing the Western block when he argued that Putin was a war criminal, and the West would not sign off on an agreement with him. Zelenskyy was assured that NATO would continue to ramp up its military and economic support for Ukraine, and some western analysts felt Putin’s position was precarious.
Gee, that strategy worked out well, didn’t it?
The Reality of Ukraine’s Desperate Situation
As you can see in the map below, if an agreement to end the war was signed today, Russia would secure a significantly larger area of Ukraine than was outlined in the Minsk Accords. In fact, Russian-occupied territory now runs all the way to Bakhmut, and considering the cost to Russia in terms of lives and treasure, it’s unlikely Putin will give up those gains in negotiations, especially since Russia is winning the war.
Another War That Should Never Have Happened
It’s clear from Zelensky’s peace overtures, and senile Joe Biden’s determined effort to start WW3, the Ukraine proxy war was a terrible mistake.
Already, we have poured $100 billion in borrowed money into this futile effort at a time when our national debt reached $36 trillion. Despite the neocon narrative, Putin is not an insane, genocidal maniac. The argument that if he took Ukraine’s Eastern provinces, Poland would be next, is absurd. Western nations pushed, prodded and dared Russia to respond to relentless expansion and efforts to destabilize the region. We broke our promise to not expand eastward, rebuffed Putin’s efforts to join NATO, organized a coup in Ukraine, and torpedoed the Minsk Accords through our surrogate Boris Johnson.
From the beginning, something about the Ukraine war smelled foul, and assuming we don’t exchange nukes with Russia before President Trump assumes office, I hope there is a thorough public investigation into why the war started, what path to victory ever existed for Ukraine, and most importantly, how the $100 billion we spent on this foolish endeavor was divvied up. Let’s start with an investigation of every Ukrainian who bought a BMW last year because it is very odd a war-ravaged country with a 30% decline in GDP could set luxury auto sales records in 2023 and 2024.
