The Foreign Policy Throughline of Trump’s First Month? China
The Trump administration’s outreach to its Russian counterparts to settle the Ukraine war represents its latest attempt to refocus American foreign policy on China. Inheriting a world order defined by Sino-Russian rapprochement, Iranian regional aggression, and American passivity in the face of foreign intervention in the Western Hemisphere, President Trump embraces a grand strategy in which Washington pragmatically uses its influence to maintain its global predominance.
The start of Trump’s term has been characterized by realistic assessments of each country’s capabilities to craft policies that advance American interests. The end goal is to rival China by reinforcing the United States’ regional superiority and mitigating conflicts that drain American resources.
A natural place to start with such an outlook is Washington’s backyard: Latin America.
Despite eclipsing the rest of the Western Hemisphere in terms of military and economic power, the United States failed to retaliate decisively against Beijing’s construction of ports, expansion of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and military activity in Latin America under the Biden administration. Beijing has taken advantage of waning U.S. economic influence in Latin America to force its way into the region’s markets and extract its critical minerals.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s Western Hemisphere tour marks a shift in Washington’s conception of its relationship vis-à-vis its southern neighbors. His forceful diplomacy already led to Panama’s withdrawal from the BRI and a pledge to support Costa Rican efforts to thwart Chinese cybersecurity attacks. Thanks to Trump’s pressure, BlackRock just bought ports in the Panama Canal previously owned by Chinese firms.
Economic integration with Latin America is only fruitful, however, if countries in the region are self-sustaining and not constantly disturbed by northward mass migration. Thus, Trump’s deportations and tariffs for countries that refuse to comply with his migratory policy are a reminder that the benefits of trading with America are only assured if the Western Hemisphere is stable, interconnected, and led by the United States.
By securing America’s backyard, the Trump administration has buttressed its bargaining position with peer competitors across the globe. If the United States aspires to wield global power, regional predominance is a prerequisite.
When it comes to the Middle East, Trump’s realist worldview underpins his renewed pressure against Iran. He is rescinding the sanctions waivers that granted Tehran access to $10 billion worth of accounts in Iraq and Oman, and which the Biden administration extended even after Trump won the election.
While weakening Iran, he is encouraging Arab states to present their own solutions to the crisis in Gaza. His takeover plan should be seen, as explained by National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, as an effort to “bring the entire region to come with their own solutions.” This is exactly what happened: Egypt began developing a plan in response to Trump’s initial proposal, though the administration wants to see a more ambitious version.
The president’s outreach to Arab states, strong cooperation with Israel, and maximum pressure on Iran underscore the administration’s prioritization of stability in the region.
With regards to the war in Ukraine, Trump understands that the country’s current capabilities are insufficient to recapture territory lost to Russian troops, which have not ceased advancing. He is also not prepared to send more aid to Ukraine if it is unwilling to negotiate the end of a conflict depleting its manpower and reserves.
A settlement process is only possible if the United States resets its relationship with Moscow. Consequently, last month’s Riyadh talks were not just about the war. They addressed economic and diplomatic cooperation, beginning with the basics, such as restaffing the embassies in Washington and Moscow.
Why is Putin acquiescing to negotiations if he has the upper hand on the battlefield? Perhaps he has evaluated that Russian losses have become undesirably high, that Trump’s ability to work with allies and adversaries alike is worth reciprocating, and that he has achieved the majority of his military objectives. Or—like Mexico, Canada, and Colombia’s leaders—Putin takes Trump’s sanctions and tariff menace seriously, and wants to avoid the further deterioration of U.S.-Russia relations that would result from not coming to the negotiating table.
Russian citizens and public officials will not easily forget the Biden administration’s attempts to crush Russia’s economy. The U.S. thus needs to persuade Moscow that the U.S.-Russia reset is an authentic attempt at promoting long-term cooperation. One way of doing so is to lift some of the restrictions on Moscow’s global market access and permit American companies to return to Russia. As a result, Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff and CEO of the Russian Direct Investment Fund Kirill Dmitriev—both sharing a business as opposed to a diplomatic background—participated in the Riyadh talks.
Europe has recognized that it will not always be able to depend on the United States for its defense. As Jean-Noël Barrot, France’s Minister for Europe and Foreign Affairs, put it, “This is a good moment to strengthen Europe within NATO.” The Trump administration is ultimately setting its sights on maintaining global supremacy over China, so if Europe decides to remain fixated on Moscow, it should not unconditionally expect Washington’s backing.
Over the past few years, China has imported discounted Russian oil and gas, flooded Russian markets with automobiles, and agreed to pay for Russian gas in rubles and yuan. One way of confronting the China threat is to drive a wedge between Moscow and Beijing, which Trump has already begun doing. This will require strategic cooperation with the Kremlin. However, such outreach should include clear warnings to the Russian delegation that it will face harsh consequences if it violates the terms of the upcoming settlement.
Trump’s emphasis on the Western Hemisphere, pressure on Arab states to present their own Gaza plans, enforcement of sanctions against Iran, and outreach to Russia all point to one final target: China. This is further supported by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s order to cut 8 percent of the Pentagon’s budget, including military commands in the Middle East, Europe, and Africa. The Indo-Pacific, the U.S.-Mexico border, and domestic missile defense were exempted.
Maintaining a strong relationship with the United States’ allies in Asia will be necessary to constrain China. In that spirit, Trump received Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba at the White House, where both condemned Beijing’s illegal maritime claims. The administration voiced its “ironclad” support to the Philippines in response to Chinese naval aggression. Trump also met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to discuss the procurement of F-35 fighter jets and sign a deal that would make the United States the largest exporter of oil and gas to India.
Thus, although the Trump administration’s diplomacy is strewn across multiple theatres, its ultimate objective is to weaken China. To do so, the United States must be willing to engage with allies and adversaries alike; take a forceful diplomatic stance, such as Trump did when he threatened 100 percent tariffs on BRICS countries that de-dollarize; resolve conflicts that have exhausted American resources; and reorganize the Pentagon’s budget. Trump’s first month represents a strong start in this regard, and the administration’s strategy will continuously need to be revised to ensure that the spotlight remains on China as well as American domestic and international interests.
Axel de Vernou is a senior at Yale University majoring in Global Affairs and History with a Certificate of Advanced Language Study in Russian. He is a Research Assistant at the Yorktown Institute.
This article was originally published by RealClearDefense and made available via RealClearWire.
