New Poll Shows Virginia Gubernatorial Race Tightening

A new poll is signaling that Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears is closing in on her Democrat opponent in the Virginia governor race. 

The Roanoke College poll showed Democrat gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger leading Earle-Sears 46% to 39% in the category of likely Virginia voters. That is a significant diminishment from May where Spanberger was leading by 43% compared to Earle-Sears’s 26%. The newest poll also shows 14% of surveyed likely voters were undecided, and 1% would not be voting for either Spanberger or Earle-Sears. Roanoke College is a private liberal arts school located in Salem, Virginia.

Earle-Sears’ rise in the polls is significant considering Spanberger has out fundraised her Republican opponent by millions of dollars. That’s $27 million for the Democrat candidate compared to $11 million raised by Earle-Sears. Spanberger is also leading with cash on hand at more than $15 million compared to Earle-Sears’ $4 million.

The general election for the Virginia governor’s race is going to be held on Nov. 4.

Earle-Sears has served as Virginia’s lieutenant governor since 2022. Before that she was a member of the Virginia House of Delegates from 2002 to 2004 and operated a home appliance business. She is also a Marines Corps. veteran, having served from 1983 to 1986. 

Spanberger is a former member of Congress who has served in the House of Representatives from 2019 to 2025. She previously worked for the CIA and is a graduate of the University of Virginia. 

Earle-Sears was elected in 2021 with Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin. Youngkin, a former private equity executive, has made waves with his stewardship of the state. The Commonwealth has managed to reverse out migration, finished fiscal year 2025 with almost $2.7 billion above forecast, and there has been a total of $10 billion in surplus revenue over the last three and a half years. Youngkin is term limited from running directly for reelection.

The shift in the race comes as Virginia Attorney General Jason Miyares is investigating Loudoun County Public Schools after they suspended three high school boys who complained about a girl using the boys’ locker room. Democrat candidate Jay Jones currently leads Miyares 41% to 38% in the Virginia Attorney General race.