DeSantis Desperately Tries to Thread the Needle
In life, there are many things beyond our control that gob smack us from left field, but Ron DeSantis has unnecessarily waded into political quicksand, and it will likely prove to be a tragic error that may bring an end to his political aspirations.
Breaking Down Trump’s Support
As the primary season begins to heat up, it’s clear all roads to the 2024 Republican nomination run through Donald Trump, whose influence is so outsized, it sucks up most of the oxygen in the room. Trump’s supporters essentially fall into three categories: First, there are the hardcore zealots. Trump probably could be caught shivving someone on a live stream, and they would still vote for him. The second group has a deep respect for his policies and performance as president, but they have grown weary of the endless antics. This group wishes Trump would take a break from the 24/7 attack mode that triggers a full-out assault on every negative story, even when the source is a marginal reporter or publication.
The third group is the most vulnerable to changing allegiance. They also support Trump’s policies, but they see him as arrogant and narcissistic. Weary of the drama and cringe-worthy bragging that never seems to end, they have either abandoned Trump already, or their support for him is soft. DeSantis, who shares many of the same views as Trump but without the bravado, has picked up a sizable chunk of these voters.
Back in May 2022, it seemed that Trump might be vulnerable to a serious challenge from someone like DeSantis. An NBC News/Hart Research poll taken around that time indicated that 33% of Republican primary voters believed Trump was a good president but wanted new leadership. Another 10% thought Trump was a bad president.
DeSantis Tries to Thread the Needle
It must have been during that period, when the polls seemed to indicate Trump was losing support, that DeSantis decided to run for president. Yet, the shortsighted nature of his decision left him with enormous hurdles that are proving more insurmountable every day. If he chooses to take a no prisoners approach and launches an all-out assault on Trump, he runs the risk of alienating Trump’s unshakable core, and they might stay home in the general election. DeSantis acknowledged this dilemma in a 2018 recording, where he spoke about the need to frame answers in a way that would not “piss off all his (Trump’s) voters.”
As a result, DeSantis has tread through the Trump minefield carefully, dialed in on Biden’s failures and mostly avoiding direct attacks on Trump. So far, this strategy has failed miserably, as one would expect. DeSantis is not running against Joe Biden; he’s running against Donald Trump, and there is very little breathing room between the two on policy. While DeSantis understands the danger of attacking Trump directly, Trump has shown no such concern for losing the support of DeSantis’ voters.
When it became clear DeSantis was going to announce his candidacy, Trump initiated a daily barrage of relentless and blistering attacks. First, he hung the nickname “DeSanctus” on his rival. This morphed into “DeSanctimonious” and forked into “DeSaster.” Somewhere, a dismissive reference to a “Rob DeSanctus” made it into the vernacular. Trump has used his Truth Social platform to attack DeSantis daily with accusations of disloyalty, policy failures and cluster bombs like this one:
The net result has been a dramatic shift in the polls over the past four months. In February, Reuters had Trump ahead of DeSantis by 11 points. By March, the lead had widened to 14 points. By May, Trump’s lead over DeSantis had ballooned to 28 points.
Where Does DeSantis Go from Here?
Can DeSantis gain traction in his effort to overtake Trump, who is steamrolling the field on his way to a third GOP nomination?
It’s unlikely.
DeSantis’ recent attacks on Trump ring hollow. Illegal immigration? Among Republicans, the perception is that no one did more to try to secure the border than Trump. Fauci? In the early stages of the pandemic, estimates of the death rate were as high as 10%. No president facing such a catastrophic loss of life could have defied the recommendations of the nation’s top infectious disease expert. Abortion? The difference between the candidates isn’t enough to appreciably move the needle, and it’s a losing issue for Republicans, anyway.
Oddly, DeSantis has avoided the one topic he could potentially exploit. The Covid vaccine is a red meat issue among right leaning Republicans, and Trump is vulnerable because he pushed for the development of the vaccine and then encouraged people to go get the jab. Maybe DeSantis is saving that issue for the debates, but by then, it may be too late to stop Trump’s growing momentum.
DeSantis Could Have Owned 2028
Apparently, Trump warned DeSantis about the multifaceted attacks he would face if he ran in 2024. Trump reportedly promised DeSantis would “never be able to successfully run for office again.” In the most likely scenario, DeSantis becomes the 2024 version of Ted Cruz, drawn into a bitter, extremely personal gutter war from which DeSantis, like Cruz, never fully recovers. Far less likely, DeSantis maintains the discipline to stay focused on Joe Biden and finds himself fileted to the bone in Hannibal Lecter fashion.
It didn’t need to be this way.
DeSantis probably could have negotiated a sweet deal with Trump that included an endorsement in 2028. Maybe he could have landed the Attorney General’s job or even become Trump’s running mate, either of which would have set him up as the clear frontrunner in the next election cycle at the young age of 48.
In taking on Trump, DeSantis made a strategic blunder, and at some point, he’s going to realize what his impatience cost him.
