WW III: Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD) Doctrine Being Tested

Over the noise about the Trump guilty verdict, have you seen any reports about developments in the Russia/Ukraine war?

As Russia continues to make slow progress on the ground, longer-range weapons are being supplied to Ukraine, along with proposals to strike targets within Russia. The defense minister of the Netherlands said that Ukraine could use the F-16s it sends in any way it likes.

The top map shows the location of Russian early warning system (EWS) radars and the area over which they can detect an incoming ballistic missile. The lower one shows the area covered by two installations that were reportedly attacked. At least one is said to be out of action awaiting repairs.

A degraded EWS leaves a country subject to a decapitating strike. Cold War doctrine calls for a devastating response, which has so far not materialized. But against what? NATO is maintaining plausible deniability.

Ascending the escalatory ladder without dire consequences so far “has led to a situation where many western decision-makers sincerely believe they can act with impunity, totally disregarding Russian warnings, while considering the likelihood of nuclear war an impossibility.”

The U.S. has no system to destroy nuclear warheads about to impact an American city. The batteries of Nike missiles that used to ring cities in the 1950s (the Nike-Hercules was nuclear-tipped) were all decommissioned.

The Soviet Union did not abandon anti-ballistic missile defense using nuclear warheads. In 2001, Russia was said to have a de facto missile-defense network with at least 8,000 modern interceptors, tipped with small nuclear warheads that do not require bullet-hitting-bullet accuracy. As of 2020, there were plans to double the firepower capabilities of the system defending Moscow.

There are many unknowns about Russian and U.S. capabilities, and the long-lasting MAD doctrine credited with keeping the peace for decades is being challenged.

Presidential candidate Donald Trump said that nuclear annihilation is the real threat, in commenting on President Joe Biden’s recent speech, in which he said global warming posed the “greatest existential threat to our country.” Neither candidate is talking about strategic or civil defense. The Biden Administration has authorized Ukraine to use U.S. weapons for “limited” strikes within Russia.

Additional Information: D.I.Y. Civil Defense