You’ll Never Believe What Rasmussen Says About The GOP’s Chances In 2026
According to a new poll from the conservative — and generally reliable — Rasmussen, a slender plurality of voters now favors Democrats to retake the House in the 2026 midterm elections.
“The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that if the elections for Congress were held today, 45% of likely U.S. voters would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 44% would vote for the Republican,” according to the outlet.
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“Nine percent say they would vote for some other candidate, while another three percent are not sure.”
The survey of 1,012 likely voters was conducted May 14-15 and May 18. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.
Among the poll’s other findings:
• Ninety-three percent of those polled say they’re likely to vote in next year’s midterm congressional elections, including 73% who are very likely to vote in the midterms. Among the very likely voters, Democrats lead by a three-point margin, with 48% to the GOP’s 45%.
• Seventy-three percent believe it makes a difference whether Republicans or Democrats control Congress, while 15% don’t think it makes much difference and 12% are not sure.
• Among voters who believe it matters which party controls Congress, Democrats lead by a 48% to 47% margin.
Democrats lead on the generic ballot question mainly because of a slight advantage in partisan intensity.
• Eighty-eight percent of Democratic voters would vote for their party’s congressional candidate, compared to 85% of GOP voters who would vote for the Republican if the midterm election were held today.
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• Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 39% would vote for the Republican congressional candidate and 35% would vote for the Democrat if the election were today.
• Twenty-one percent of unaffiliated voters say they’d vote for a third-party congressional candidate instead.
Seventy-nine percent of Republicans, 75% of Democrats and 73% of unaffiliated voters say they’re very likely to vote in next year’s midterm congressional elections.
Special thanks to Warhammer’s Wife for proofreading this story before publication to make certain there were no misspellings, grammatical errors or other embarrassing mistakes and/or typos. Follow Warhammer on X @Real_Warhammer. Read Warhammer’s stories on The Hayride by clicking here.
