I Left Brazil: A Stone Cold Analysis

A lot of people are leaving Brazil after the election results. Lula already promised to censor social media harder in his first speech, the market collapsed 20%, and there is widespread desperation among the right-wing half of the population.

There’s a lot of speculation about Brazil’s reasons for voting Lula, what did Bolsonaro do wrong, etc…. etc… etc…. Most of it is just bonkers. So let me be brutal.

The two most important factors determining the destiny of any people are

1) Their intelligence distribution
2) Their Biogeography

In this order.

It’s not just the average IQ, you need a minimum of people above 110 to run a good society, and a minimum above 130 to run a great society.

Society is much worse if you have some 79 than if you have too many 88s. You can work with 88s, you can’t work with 79s. The military won’t conscript that low because people are more problem than solution and can’t generate more value than they cost by existing.

Brazil has a lot smart people, few very smart people (hi how are you?), and a monumental amount of retards and idiots.

To make it worse, the retards and idiots reproduce more than the smart people, and we the very smart people move out of the country because our economy has no role for actually brilliant people. Brazil’s IQ peaked long ago and has been steadily declining for decades.

The election can be seen as a competition for the 81 to 85IQ vote. Outside the big cities, most people above vote Bolsonaro, most people below vote Lula. The battle is in that range. This time, Bolsonaro won the house and senate, Lula won the presidency for 4th time.

Largely speaking Brazilians are retarded and envious. The blacks and indigenous whose IQ is below 80 envy everything about the whites and mixed who have more resources like cellphones and so on. The whites envy other whites who are either prettier, or smarter, or richer, or both.

In school, and I’m at the elite of the elite of Brazil, top 0.2% school, people envied me for being smart, and tried to push me down, they envied others for being beautiful.

Brazilians lack agency. Brazil is only a free separated country because the son revolted against the father, we didn’t have a liberation war. Brazil only freed the slaves because everyone else did and England forced our hand. Brazilians are envious, retarded, and non agentic. Brazilians are moved by outside forces, not compelled by internal drive.

Brazilians inherited the 3 worst traits of the three cultural groups of which it is made.

1) From Latin whites (Portuguese, Italian, Spaniards) it inherited nobility culture, crony capitalism and extraction culture.
2) From African people, magical thinking, immediatism, envy.
3) From Indigenous people, insolence, total resistance to work, and laziness.

That’s the people. Roberto Campos is the anthropologist who studied us and said it. I’m just the messenger.

Then there’s the biogeography. Brazil is enormous, the rivers are turned the wrong way, hard to navigate, the people are living by the beach and not integrated economically with the rest of South America or the rest of Brazil itself. Brazil is far away from the economy of earth, so everything is expensive due to transport.

In short, Brazil got the short stick of intelligence, and the short stick of biogeography.

There is literally nothing anyone can do to stop the fall of Brazil. If ASI doesn’t save Brazil, it will continue to decline forever.

The best people leave (hi how are you?), the worse people stay, the worst people reproduce.

There are 40 million Angolans in Brazil; they just passed Portugal as the biggest genetic group. Look at Angola and you’ll see it is not a peak industrial and service giant with highly advanced tech. It is a communist shithole of hell.

That is where Brazil will necessarily go for biological reasons, since intelligence is biological, and biogeographical reasons, because we are far from everyone.

I knew all this in 2014, and I left. I abandoned the sinking ship and I thank myself every day in the mirror for being smart enough to do it. Thank you, past Diego, you truly are the best ever. You are the man. Thank you.

A lot of people now in 2026 are choosing to leave. They must, they should. There is no salvation inside Brazil, because nobody, no matter how well-intended and strong-willed, can defeat the curse of bad biogeography and low intelligence. It has never been done and it never will.

People are trying to find an explanation for the election and why Lula won.

That’s wrong. Flavio was supposed to win, but Lula is one in a century charismatic, propped up by the growth of China in his first 2 mandates and became a legend in the minds of Brazilians. So in the battle for those between 81 and 85 IQ, Lula loomed large in their imaginarium, and he won.

There is nothing that needs explanation. Lula is over, if it was anyone else Flavio would have won. The right did everything right, and it was not enough. Finding reasons now is genuinely wrong, because victory was not possible.

Maybe four years from now in Lula’s absence the country will be more right wing. But it will also be 1 IQ point lower. Because us the 130+s will have moved out, and because the retards and imbeciles will have reproduced more than the midwits.

There is no escaping this.

This is destiny.

So to everyone considering leaving Brazil. Obviously, get out of there immediately. Go to any country with a better IQ distribution and a better biogeography, with less envy, less magical thinking, and less insolence.

Everything will improve. You will miss your family, but everything else will improve.

I left Brazil and it was one of the best decisions I have ever made.

It is your chance to do the same.

End the magical thinking. Even if your political side had won, it would never in a million years defeat the curse of a bad IQ distribution and a bad biogeography on top of it.

Brazil will never rise, unless AI changes the game completely.

And when it does, we can all go back and enjoy it! 🙂

Leave.

Don’t hesitate, just leave.