The Idiotic “Iran Blockade Hurts America More” Narrative
“Continuing the blockade puts far more pressure on us than on Iran. Iran has proven it can endure economic pain—it has been doing so since 1979.”
I keep seeing this talking point. It’s Iranian cope. Iran massively subsidizes gasoline purchases by Iranians – when the price went up 50%, there were riots in the streets. And given that the President of Iran was talking about how Iranians should use less electricity (while pretending the blockade had no effect), this is dumb.
“The blockade will not force Iran to abandon uranium enrichment, ballistic missiles, or its proxy networks.”
Did you just get off the phone with Aragchi? Of course the Iranians will claim this. When they have to shut in their oil wells and the Rial is at 5 million to the dollar, let’s see what they say.
“Instead, the blockade is hurting the American people and creating serious domestic pressure on POTUS: Gas prices will continue to rise as we head into the midterms, harming the working class voters who overwhelmingly backed Trump and Republicans—putting GOP majorities in serious jeopardy.”
Everything Strait of Hormuz related has already been priced in. Oil producers around the world are increasing production – including here in the United States, which is the biggest oil exporter in the world. We are doing just fine. Literally the news this week has been about random stuff. No domestic voter is thinking “man I wish the Iranian blockade was over,” and they certainly won’t be thinking about that six months from now.
“Staging three carrier battle groups plus a massive build up of airpower in CENTCOM to enforce the blockade is unsustainable—it hands an emboldened IRGC ample opportunities to strike U.S. forces and drag America back into war on Iran’s terms.”
It’s not unsustainable – it’s not even half of our carrier groups. We’re also the wealthiest nation in the world. Moreover, if the IRGC had the ability to hit the carriers, they would have hit them in the six weeks we were engaged in active major military operations. They didn’t because they can’t, OBVIOUSLY.
“The global fallout only increases the pressure on us, not Iran: Beyond the oil and gas crisis, the blockade is now triggering a global fertilizer shortage that will cause major food security crises and potential famines in vulnerable regions.”
Iranian fertilizer is not underpinning the global economy, so this is silly. Moreover, is America a vulnerable region? No. You just assume that second-order effects on Africa are relevant to the United States’ foreign policy. What happened to America First, Joe?
“The smarter path is clear: withdraw, declare victory, and use sanctions relief as our negotiating leverage with Iran. This resets the talks on our terms, avoids war, and prevents further escalation of the energy crisis at home and abroad.”
A withdrawal will obviously be seen as a defeat. All our gulf allies will see it as a defeat, and will re-orient their alliances away from the United States and towards China. We would give up our primary leverage – the blockade is an existential threat to Iranian oil infrastructure because they are running out of storage and you can’ just turn oil wells off and on. We have our boot on their throat, and you suggest that our negotiating position would improve if we took it off? Completely and utterly retarded.
